About This Site & How I Rate Horses
Free, data-driven horse racing tips with a record I actually publish — winners and losers.
Why I built this
I got tired of tipsters who shout about their winners and quietly bury their losers. I wanted to know one simple thing: if you followed a set of selections honestly, day after day, settled at the real price — would you actually be ahead? So I built my own ratings, started tracking every pick at Starting Price, and put the whole record on this site, good and bad. That is the entire idea. David Shaw runs it, and everything you read here is in my own words.
How the ratings work
For every race, I score each runner on three things and weigh them against the other horses in that same race:
- Form — recent finishing form and the class of race it was achieved in. This carries the most weight, because it is the most reliable signal over time.
- The market — where the bookmakers price a horse. The odds carry real information, so I fold them in rather than pretend I know better than the whole betting market.
- Speed — official speed and performance figures where the data provides them.
Those combine into a single 0–100 rating, and the highest-rated runner in a race becomes our rank-1 pick. You can see the rating and rank for every runner on the racecards — nothing is hidden.
The one edge I actually claim — the Nap
Backing every top-rated pick is not profitable; short-priced favourites are short for a reason. The edge I found, and the only one I stand behind, is more selective: the Nap of the Day is the clearest standout — the horse our rating separates from its race by the biggest margin — taken only at a fair price (odds of roughly 2/1 or bigger, never short favourites). That rule held up both in the data I built it on and in data I deliberately held back to test it. Its tracked record so far is +6.0% ROI from 207 settled Naps at a 30% strike rate — see every one.
How I keep the record honest
Level stakes, one point a bet, settled at the industry Starting Price — exactly how a betting shop would pay you. Every selection is logged win or lose. I removed an each-way tip once the data showed it had no place edge, and I do not dress up the accumulators, value picks or Lucky 15 as profit-makers, because the numbers say they are not. You can audit the lot on the Results and Pick Record pages.
Frequently asked questions
Are these horse racing tips really free?
Yes — every tip on this site is free: the Nap of the Day, the Daily Double and Trixie, value picks, Lucky 15 and a data rating for every runner in every race. There is no paywall, no "premium" upsell and no tipping service to buy. If you want them by email, the newsletter is free too.
How are your ratings calculated?
I rate every runner in a race from three things: recent form, the market (the odds the bookmakers are offering), and speed figures where they are available. Each factor is scored relative to the other runners in that same race, then combined with a fixed weighting that favours form, so the rating reflects how a horse stacks up against today's actual opposition rather than an abstract number.
Do you guarantee winners or profit?
No, and anyone who does is not being honest with you. Horse racing is variable and most bets lose. The only selection where my data shows a genuine, out-of-sample edge is the Nap — and even that goes through losing runs. Everything else (the accumulators, value picks and Lucky 15) is published for interest, and I say plainly where it is not a proven money-maker.
Where does your data come from?
The racecards, runners, odds and results come from The Racing API, covering UK and Irish racing. I pull the cards each morning, generate the ratings, and fetch results through the afternoon and evening so the Live Results page keeps up as races settle.
How do you settle and track results?
Every published pick is settled at the industry Starting Price (SP) — the same price a betting shop pays — at level stakes of one point. Winners and losers both go on the record, which you can see on the Results and Pick Record pages. I would rather show an honest, modest number than a flattering one I cannot stand behind.
How often does the site update?
Tips and racecards are generated every morning and firm up as declarations and odds settle; they lock once published so what you see matches what I post. Live Results refresh through the day as each race is called. Pages are served fresh — no stale caching.
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